Analysis and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Market in Shandong Province by Back-Propagation Model

李飞; 白艳萍

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Analysis and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Market in Shandong Province by Back-Propagation Model

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- Analysis and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Market in Shandong Province by Back-Propagation Model
- BP网络对山东省国内旅游市场的分析预测
- Issue 5, Pages: 426-429(2007)
- 作者机构：
  
  中北大学理学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2007
- 稿件说明：
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李飞, 白艳萍. Analysis and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Market in Shandong Province by Back-Propagation Model[J]. 2007, (5): 426-429.
DOI：

李飞, 白艳萍. Analysis and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Market in Shandong Province by Back-Propagation Model[J]. 2007, (5): 426-429. DOI：

摘要

采用三层结构的反向传播网络(back-propagation network

简称BP网络)

对山东省国内游客量建立了网络预测模型.利用实际数据进行模拟

并将模拟结果与采用相同数据源的灰色系统模型、多元回归模型、指数模型的模拟结果进行比较

发现用BP网络模型的模拟结果与实际情况最为逼近.同时

利用该模型对未来几年山东省的国内游客量进行了分析预测

预期到2008年山东省的国内游客量将达到12 577万人次.

Abstract

Network forecasting model of domestic tourists in Shandong by three-layer Back-propagation network is established.It is found that the simulated result of B-P network model is the most approached practical situation after making comparison with the simulated results of other models such as grey system

multi-regression

exponential regression.And the amount of domestic tourists in Shandong in future is forecasted with this model.The prediction amount will be 125770000 in the year of 2008.

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Keywords

references

Wong K.The relevance of business cycles in forecasting international touristarrivals[J].Tourism Management,1997,18(8):581-586.

Rumelhart D,Hinfon G,Wiliams R.Learning representation by back propagation errors[J].Nature,1986(323):533-536.

丛爽.面向MATLAB工具箱的神经网络理论与应用[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2003.

白艳萍,靳祯,冀鹏.用人工神经网络对SARS疫情进行分析与预测[J].华北工学院学报,2004,25(4):235-238.Bai Yanping,Jin Zhen,Ji Peng.Analysis and forecast of SARS epidemic situation by using artifical natural networksmodels[J].Journal of North China Institute of Technology,2004,25(4):235-238.(in Chinese)

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