电力消费与其相关因素计量经济分析

仇伟杰; 董双武

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电力消费与其相关因素计量经济分析

更新时间：2026-09-14

- 电力消费与其相关因素计量经济分析
- 电力消费与其相关因素计量经济分析
- Issue 2, (2007)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 石家庄供电公司
  2. 河北省电力公司
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2007
- 稿件说明：
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仇伟杰, 董双武. 电力消费与其相关因素计量经济分析[J]. 2007, (2).
DOI：

仇伟杰, 董双武. 电力消费与其相关因素计量经济分析[J]. 2007, (2). DOI：

摘要

利用协整分析与向量误差校正模型的研究结果

证明中国电力消费与GDP

固定资产投资

人口数量等经济因素间具有长期的均衡关系;依据电力消费与经济发展要素数据自身的变化规律

预测了中国“十一五”电力消费量;通过Granger因果关系

检验证明中国电力消费与GDP

固定资产投资之间具有双向且长期稳定的因果关系

从而解释了经济的高增长并非带来电力消费的高增长

为宏观调控与指导电力工业与国民经济的健康发展

提供了科学依据.

Abstract

By cointegration and vector error correction model method

long-term equilibrium relationships among power consumption and economic factors including GDP

the investment scale of fixed assets

population scale in China are analyzed.According to regularity of electric demand and economic development

power consumption in 2006-2010 is forecasted.Through Granger causality test

long steady causality and bi-relationships between power consumption and GDP

the investment scale of fixed assets are proved

explaining high growth of electric demand indirectly due to high economic growth.This offers scientific basis for the development of power industry and national economy

and for macroadjustments and controls.

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